Like almost all industries globally, the UK bus sector has been hugely impacted by the outbreak of COVID-19.
But while reacting to the present disruption is understandably the primary focus for many, those of us with planning roles or backgrounds must also strive to raise our sights to the horizon.
Because though it may be difficult to see right now, there will be a recovery – and our buses must be ready.
The difficulty, of course, is visualising and planning for what that recovery may look like, because there is no precedent for what we are experiencing.
In recent weeks I have been working with Trapeze colleagues from around the world – especially those in Asia – to share information and understand how best to support customers as they adapt to this challenge.
While many regions have naturally seen ridership levels plummet, it is notable that some operators in North America have actually needed to run more services to support the required levels of social isolation, with just four or five people on a bus at a time. This of course adds yet another layer of complexity to the present scheduling challenge.
In North America we are also seeing some operators who initially began by tactically reducing services, instead resorting to completely redesigning networks to meet the radically changed demand.
For guidance, look east
But of course the region that is most valuable to review is Asia, which experienced COVID-19 first.
In China, with the virus now under control, bus and train services are starting to resume.
My team is therefore very focused on analysing the behavioural data and travel patterns emerging from countries in Asia – as well as the measures being put in place as business ramps back up.
To illustrate, we are hearing that the recovery strategy comprises two stages: stabilising business and forward thinking.
For this first stage – stabilising business – operators are essentially rebuilding their route networks.
In doing so, they are approaching the task as a new business might, and initially focusing on predictable demand.
Most obviously this means journeys to and from hospitals, and the homes of key workers. In this way, operators are providing essential mobility for key workers, while also starting to generate much-needed revenue.
The forward-thinking stage of the recovery plans relate to the implementation of ‘clean routes’.
This means that buses are taken out of service several times a day to be thoroughly cleaned – with prominent signs placed on the vehicle to indicate when it was last disinfected.
With passenger confidence such a fragile commodity at the moment, these changes are seen as vital to providing the reassurance required for ridership numbers to increase.
Data analysis and information sharing
As we seek to respond to COVID-19, data is one of the most powerful tools available to us. COVID-19 is not easy to predict, with significant regional variations in infection rates, and unknowns relating to population behaviour and government policy.
But the one thing we do know is that if we want to prepare to return to normal – or more likely a ‘new normal’ – we need information.
Today it is possible to visit a website and visualise the current impact of the virus by region.
More usefully, by looking at UK infection data and overlaying it with that emerging from Asia (over a longer period), it is actually possible to map out what our recovery timeline might look like.
Furthermore, by feeding external data – from Google analytics, government websites and real-time information systems – into our own Novus SchedulePlus scheduling solution, we can then help our bus operator customers with network design as we move into recovery mode.
The value of information
By sharing information we are now able to start predicting future demand – which is of course critical to the recovery process, because at the point where people are ready to start travelling, buses must be ready to serve them.
It is comforting to think that among all this madness, difficulty and complexity, public transport remains utterly vital.
And, it is how our bus drivers, schedulers and managers join the nation’s nurses, doctors and supermarket staff in giving back to their communities.
Looking forwards together
As the UK looks to recover from COVID-19 it is vital we look overseas to learn from others who have already experienced our present concerns.
As well as data analysis, we will need to consider practical solutions we are hearing about from elsewhere, including middle door boarding, taping over stop bells, cordoning off seats, and ensuring drivers have time to regularly clean down buses.
In many ways the world has never felt more frightening than it does today.
But at the same time, as technology brings people together to share experiences and learn from one another, it has also never felt smaller – and that is at least something for which we can be thankful.
It is important to remember that these difficult times will come to an end and that things will return to normal. We are here to support you now – and for the entire journey.
Further reading: Lessons from China: Practical solutions for public transport’s recovery after COVID-19 by Gavin John
About Trapeze Group
Public transport is more than buses, trains and taxis; it’s how we as a society connect families and friends; children with their schools; and workers with the jobs that drive our economies.
Every day, UK transport providers strive to deliver mobility for those in their communities – in many instances for those for whom that need is greatest of all. For so many of our customers, public transport is far more than a job – and we are continually inspired by their dedication.
As stakeholders in the public transport sector we aim to match that dedication; recognising that we too play a vital role in this transport ecosystem. As Local Authority budgets continue to shrink – and commercial operators face similar constraints – our customers rely on us to deliver the tools they need to do their jobs with ever more efficiency.
Together we are working to increase the effectiveness of public transport; promoting it as not only the transport system of tomorrow, but of today.
We all aspire to sustainable forms of transport, but if we really want our children to experience the world as we have – and to benefit from a truly exceptional transport system – then we need to start building it today.
We believe in public transport, and it’s our goal to make it better.
Trapeze and its parent, Volaris Group, are part of the largest IT company in Canada, Constellation Software. Volaris acquires, strengthens, and grows vertically-focused software companies, offering them a safe and permanent home, and positioning companies like ours for long-term, sustainable growth.
Find out more: trapezegroup.co.uk
About the author
Gavin John CMILT, MTPS, is the Scheduling Solutions Manager at Trapeze Group. With a background of 12 years in UK bus operations, he brings this front-line experience to bear at Trapeze.
Starting his career in UK bus industry as an Assistant Operations Manager at Stagecoach’s Cwmbran depot, after three years he was promoted to a commercial role at Stagecoach Group, including a critical managerial role for a year with Stagecoach’s events division at the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics.
He joined Trapeze Group six years ago as a Software Consultant, being promoted to his current post in 2018.
A Chartered Member of the Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK), he is also a Member of the Transport Planning Society, which facilitates, develops and promotes best practice in transport planning and provides a focus for dialogue between all those engaged in it.
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